Description

This analysis provides a forecast of KAS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 0.061003 0.068937 0.077150 0.086260 0.096053 0.106237 0.117602
2025-02-16 0.044227 0.055399 0.067713 0.082159 0.098504 0.116301 0.137014
2025-02-23 0.036666 0.050267 0.066081 0.085485 0.108320 0.134029 0.164853
2025-03-02 0.031155 0.046410 0.065013 0.088731 0.117554 0.150879 0.191755
2025-03-09 0.024690 0.040260 0.060229 0.086697 0.119886 0.159238 0.208537
2025-03-16 0.019360 0.034705 0.055418 0.083926 0.120739 0.165401 0.222414
2025-03-23 0.017167 0.033129 0.055526 0.087208 0.128980 0.180467 0.247036
2025-03-30 0.014969 0.031185 0.054850 0.089237 0.135483 0.193340 0.269034
2025-04-06 0.013412 0.029981 0.055028 0.092283 0.143242 0.207793 0.293076
2025-04-13 0.011318 0.027567 0.053177 0.092309 0.146859 0.216921 0.310478
2025-04-20 0.010955 0.028057 0.055662 0.098478 0.158788 0.236825 0.341628
2025-04-27 0.009049 0.025471 0.053167 0.097286 0.160575 0.243532 0.356041
2025-05-04 0.007750 0.023897 0.052272 0.098581 0.166092 0.255586 0.377994
2025-05-11 0.006248 0.021630 0.050052 0.097783 0.168680 0.263876 0.395332
2025-05-18 0.005862 0.021681 0.051739 0.102999 0.179895 0.283839 0.428089
2025-05-25 0.005376 0.021410 0.052815 0.107261 0.189789 0.302130 0.458834
2025-06-01 0.004169 0.019097 0.050009 0.105182 0.190338 0.307659 0.472747
2025-06-08 0.003079 0.016697 0.046747 0.102118 0.189247 0.310815 0.483444
2025-06-15 0.002795 0.016490 0.047639 0.105885 0.198345 0.328082 0.513058
2025-06-22 0.002420 0.015889 0.047686 0.108203 0.205272 0.342386 0.538807
2025-06-29 0.002176 0.015639 0.048409 0.111667 0.213965 0.359226 0.568087
2025-07-06 0.001730 0.014505 0.047183 0.111697 0.217375 0.368655 0.587413
2025-07-13 0.001763 0.015208 0.049909 0.118686 0.231597 0.393458 0.627746